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Hurricane Earl could take aim at Carolinas by Friday

Posted: Aug 31, 2010 12:36 PM
Updated: Aug 31, 2010 12:39 PM

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MIAMI, Florida (CNN) -- Hurricane Earl may prompt evacuations along the U.S. Atlantic coast even if it does not make landfall, since it may come close enough to trigger storm surge flooding and high winds, officials said Tuesday.

"We do not have a forecasted landfall, but this is a very large system," Craig Fugate, Federal Emergency Management Agency administrator, told reporters on a conference call. "We do expect impacts along the coast."

Local officials may have a limited window in which to issue evacuations, taking into effect the forecasted winds, the proximity of Earl to the coast and the time evacuations are expected to take, he said. "The primary threat here is going to be storm surge."

Earl, which quickly morphed into a Category 4 hurricane on Monday, dealt a glancing blow to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, downing trees and knocking out power to hundreds of thousands. Tuesday, Earl was passing the Turks and Caicos. Those islands and the southeastern Bahamas were forecast to experience tropical storm conditions on Tuesday afternoon.

After that, tracking maps show Earl turning northwest, putting the Outer Banks of North Carolina in its cone of uncertainty for late Thursday or early Friday. Earl is forecast to be a Category 3 storm by then -- still a major hurricane. A five-day tracking map show Earl could near Cape Cod, Massachusetts, as a Category 2 storm on Saturday.

"It's a really tough call, because we're talking 100 miles away from the coastline" and it's too soon to provide a definitive forecast track for Earl, CNN meteorologist Jacqui Jeras said. But, she said, "even without a direct hit, we're going to have some nasty conditions."

As of 2 p.m. ET, the center of Earl was about 170 miles east of Grand Turk Island and about 1,040 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, according to the National Hurricane Center. It was heading west-northwest at about 14 mph.

The hurricane's core was "passing well east of the Turks and Caicos Islands," the hurricane center said. "Tropical storm conditions are probably affecting the vicinity of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Weather conditions will likely improve in these islands on Wednesday."

Earl's maximum sustained winds are at 135 mph. It is a large storm, with hurricane-force winds stretching 70 miles from its center and tropical storm-force winds extending outward some 200 miles.

"Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but Earl is forecast to retain Category 4 status for the next day or two," the hurricane center said.

"There's still some concern for a close approach to Cape Hatteras on Thursday night," Bill Read, director of the hurricane center, told reporters Tuesday. Even a small westward shift in the forecast track "could bring direct impacts to portions of the coastline," he said.

A FEMA team is already in North Carolina to provide support if necessary, Fugate said. Additional teams have been designated for each state on the coast if needed.

He urged those living in the region to prepare for the storm, stock up on supplies and have a plan if it becomes necessary. Besides FEMA's Ready.gov website, people can use FEMA's mobile application, which links to the National Hurricane Center, to stay up-to-date on information. Tips include developing a family communications plan, putting together a kit with 72 hours of food and water and staying informed of risks in the area.

Even without making landfall, hurricanes can trigger dangerous rip currents -- a narrow channel of water that flows seaward from beaches. The currents can be strong enough to carry even experienced swimmers into deeper water.

On Tuesday, a National Weather Service coastal advisory was in effect for the eastern coast of Florida, mostly due to Earl's presence in the Caribbean. The advisory warned that dangerous rip currents and rough surf are possible. "Dozens of rescues along with one surf-related fatality were reported over the past few days in very hazardous ocean conditions," the advisory said.

Over the weekend, hundreds of rescues took place in Maryland and elsewhere because of rip currents spawned by then-Hurricane Danielle, which stayed well offshore. Danielle has since lost its tropical characteristics and moved out into the open Atlantic.

A tropical storm warning remained in effect for the Turks and Caicos islands, and a tropical storm watch was in effect for the southeastern Bahamas. Those areas could experience above-normal tides, along with "large and dangerous battering waves" on Tuesday, forecasters said.

Earl could dump between 1 and 3 inches of rain on the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas, with up to 6 inches possible in some areas, the hurricane center said.

But forecasters said conditions on Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, including gusty winds, were expected to improve as Earl departed, and storm surge flooding and waves will diminish.

"We were quite fortunate because there was no direct hit in this case," Puerto Rico Gov. Luis Fortuno told CNN's "American Morning." But, he said, the island experienced "lots of rain" and some high winds. As of Tuesday morning, 174,000 customers were without power, he said, and 33,000 lacked water service.

"There are some roads that are blocked because trees have fallen," Fortuno said. "Those are being removed as we speak, and hopefully we'll be able to get back to normal during the course of the day and tomorrow will be a regular working day."

Tito Hernandez, FEMA federal coordinating official, told reporters Tuesday that close to 200,000 were without power on Puerto Rico, and officials were focusing on restoration. About 160 people spent Monday night in 18 shelters on the island, he said, and 57 people took refuge in four shelters in the U.S. Virgin Islands.

However, both locations "fared very well," Hernandez said. Schools were expected to reopen Wednesday, he said. Transportation from Puerto Rico to the outlying islands of Culebra and Vieques had resumed, and ports in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico were reopening Tuesday.

A CNN iReport showed sheets of torrential rain on Puerto Rico, along with gusty winds. Other iReports showed downed trees and flooding on Montserrat and St. John in the Virgin Islands.

Residents were being asked to stay home so that downed trees and power lines could be removed, Fortuno said.

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands could see an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain as Earl pulls away, the Hurricane Center said on Tuesday. "Isolated maximum storm total amounts of 12 inches are possible in association with Earl," forecasters said.

Another storm could be poised to deliver a one-two punch to Puerto Rico and other areas of the Caribbean. Tropical Storm Fiona developed on Monday and appeared to be following in Earl's footsteps.

It remained a weak tropical storm as of Tuesday, the Hurricane Center said. However, it was enough to prompt a tropical storm warning for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy and a tropical storm watch for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St. Maarten, Saba and St. Eustatius.

A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions, including winds of at least 39 mph, are forecast within 36 hours. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours.

Read said Fiona is not projected to impact Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, but could impact Bermuda by the weekend.

"Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of Fiona," forecasters said. "Additional watches or warnings may be required for a portion of the area."

As of 2 p.m., the center of Fiona was located about 335 miles east of the Leeward Islands. It had winds of about 40 mph and was moving west-northwest at about 24 mph. Some slow strengthening is possible over the next day or two, forecasters said.

"We are following what the National Weather Service is telling us" on Fiona, Fortuno told CNN. "They're telling us that it is not as organized as Earl. However, it could bring about some rain, and that's what concerns me. So we'll just keep a very close eye on it and see what happens."

-- CNN's Angela Fritz contributed to this report.

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